 |
Highlights
- The 10-year elections — like 2010, 2020, and 2030 — matter because the party that wins has the majority and the momentum, controls the money, and draws the maps.
- The 2024 election results are 30+ years in the making, building on an election in 1994 that was reactionary, revolutionary, and set the stage for the evolution of party politics in North Carolina.
- Leveraging voters’ inclination to vote against parties, candidates, and issues is a political tactic that is not good for North Carolina, the country, or the world.
- To win North Carolina, parties, candidates, and issue-based campaigns have to have an unaffiliated voter strategy going forward.
- How Republicans won big in the 2024 elections, and how the landslide win of Governor-elect Josh Stein and other Council of State wins provides evidence that voters value the checks and balances of a competitive, two-party state.
- A first look at the challenges and opportunities ahead in how Superintendent-elect Mo Green navigates politics, leads on policy, and organizes the N.C. Department of Instruction.
- Cross-partisan strategies that account for the political reality of North Carolina and have the capacity to influence education policy are needed in the next legislative session and are in the best interests of our students and local public schools.
Polls and forecasts play an important role in campaigns leading up to elections, influencing where candidates make appearances, discerning who is certain to vote but even more importantly who is not, impacting how money is spent, and informing other important strategic campaign decisions.
Voters look to polls as a sign — even though they are notoriously unreliable as predictors of elections. “It’s extremely hard to predict the direction of polling errors,” said pollster Nate Silver before the election. And yet we look to them as elections near for evidence that the outcomes will align with our own preferences. It’s an exercise in confirmation bias, which is “people’s tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with their existing beliefs.”
Elections would be less surprising if people assessed what they thought was going to happen separate and apart from their own needs, wants, and wishes and instead with an analysis of party, candidate, and issue strength. If you evaluate those things and then filter through who actually votes, election outcomes make more sense — whether you like them or not.
This is the third presidential election that EdNC has covered, and this analysis builds on the trends we have identified in previous election cycles.
The importance of the 10-year elections
Ran Coble, the longtime executive director of the N.C. Center for Public Policy Research, reminded people and policyshapers often about the importance of the 10-year elections. He called the import of those elections the 4Ms, noting that the party who won elections in 2010, 2020, and 2030, for instance, would have the majority, the momentum, the capacity to raise money for campaigns and direct money through state appropriations, and most importantly the right to draw the redistricting maps for future legislative and congressional elections.
It is in the 10-year elections that our democratic checks and balances literally hang in the balance.
Checks on governmental power were built into our system through the inherent tension in having two chambers in the legislature, for example, but also the inherent tension between the two parties; with the executive branch, especially the governor; with advocacy groups and state departments through the influence of lobbyists and legislative liaisons; and with the people through direct engagement with their elected representatives. When there is a supermajority in the legislature, a disproportionate amount of the checks falls to the inherent tension between the chambers, and because they are of the same party that comes at the expense of balance.
Why does balance matter? More political balance from competitive representation by both parties leads to greater transparency and more negotiation, which leads to better policy outcomes, overall professionalism, and what we think of as good government.
For example, once there was a supermajority in the 2023 legislative session, Republicans could rock and roll the expansion of school choice without the benefit of study commissions or robust public input. An opportunity was missed to hear experts testify about the inherent conflict of expanding vouchers to wealthy families with the Republican ideal of fiscal conservatism and the states that have championed both. An opportunity was missed to hear experts testify about pluralism, and the kinds of accountability conservative governments in other places have put in as government funding was provided to private institutions. An opportunity was missed for the state to account for the impact of the policy on rural areas, which are now underwriting choice for parents in urban areas. Almost certainly with more deliberation, the enacted policy could have prevented the limbo families waitlisted for Opportunity Scholarships and ESA+ accounts have experienced this school year.
But more importantly, North Carolina could have led the way nationally and internationally, taking the time to lay the groundwork for how to do this well over the long term, including the role of school districts to support learning across sectors in the future. That’s already happening in other places, including Boston.
The supermajority combined with the power of the purse — control over the state budget — creates a political environment where Republicans can not just rock and roll but they can rock and roll fast.
“It is a challenging hand to play with this much legislative engagement and ownership with these high levels of funding,” said Margaret Spellings, former president of the UNC System.
Checks and balances slow the roll, and without them, you can end up with “politics without guardrails,” as it has been described in a book by political scientists at Harvard titled “How Democracies Die.”
The upshot is that if you want more balance in North Carolina politics, you need to backwards map from 2030.
How did we get here?
The 1994 version
In 1994, Democrats had been in control since the 1800s, thanks in part to the control they enjoyed over redistricting that resulted from winning the 10-year elections throughout the 20th century.
That year, Republicans won 92 of the 170 seats in the legislature. Republicans held a majority in the House, and Democrats held a 26-24 majority in the Senate. Newspapers heralded it as a “Tarheel Revolution.”
In the first article I ever wrote about politics in North Carolina, I wondered whether the win was reactionary — anti-incumbent, anti-Democrat, anti-tax, anti-big government. Or whether it was revolutionary — a changing of the guard from Democrats who governed for most of the 20th century to Republicans who were hoping to govern for much of the 21st century. Or whether it was evolutionary — a single step towards becoming a competitive, two-party state.
The elections since then, including this one, show that then and now all three of those characterizations have a place in understanding the evolution of party politics in our state.
The 2010 version
If 1994 was the revolution, then 2010 was the cementing of power with Republicans. A 10-year election, 2010 was a watershed moment in the politics of North Carolina with Republicans taking control of both houses of the legislature for the first time since the 19th century.
An article in Governing titled, “How North Carolina Turned So Red So Fast” said, “North Carolina is locked in a long-term battle over who best represents a state that has an undeniable conservative streak in some areas but has forged a more moderate identity than its neighbors through a commitment to infrastructure investments, support for public education, and the kinds of policies that have made the state a scientific research magnet.”
The 2014 version
In 2012, a press release from the U.S. Census Bureau said, “The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043.”
In 2014, professors of psychology from Northwestern University released this study, which asked how racial demographic shifts affect white Americans’ political-party leanings and expressed political ideology. In their research, they found evidence that the shifts led to participants in the study leaning toward the Republican party, expressing greater conservatism, and endorsing more conservative policy positions.
The study concluded that the “increasing diversity of the nation may engender a widening partisan divide.”
The undercurrent of negative partisanship since 1990
The Economist recently published a long-form essay titled, “The Anti-Politics Eating the West.” It says, “Fear and loathing is serving politicians increasing well and doing democracies increasing damage.”
Negative partisanship is the inclination of people to vote against instead of for — against a party, against a candidate, against an issue.
The Economist finds three distinct periods in our recent past when there has been a rise in negative partisanship: after 1990, with the end of the Cold War and no longer having an external aggressor to focus on; after 2008, when the global financial crisis and the Great Recession rocked people’s pocketbooks; and after 2016, when negative partisanship started being used as a political tactic.
“The electoral tactic of being anti- became the defining strategy of politics — and government,” the essay says.
The undercurrent of negative partisanship has impacted elections in North Carolina, the United States, and around the world. The Economist concludes simply, “It is a bad thing.”
“In a healthy system,” the essay says, “everybody has something to gain from working together.”
“Government requires compromise.”
“Compromise requires debate.”
“Debate requires facts.”
“Facing the facts requires leadership.”
Additional context on the 2024 elections in North Carolina
Who is registered to vote?
In this graphic from Carolina Demography, you can see how registered voters affiliation with political parties has shifted since 2013 with Democrats on the decline, Republicans holding steady, and unaffiliated registration on the upswing.
According to Carolina Demography, the majority of unaffiliated voters have registered since 2010.
Here you can see how partisan affiliation varies by race and ethnicity as of September 2024, according to Carolina Demography. Note the share of white Republicans.
The rise of unaffiliated voters demonstrates dissatisfaction with both political parties in North Carolina, and raises important questions for parties, candidates, and issue-based advocacy.
What is the role of parties and the strategy of candidates when the vote is split this way? Is it to pull voters to the party or push them to candidates and issues?
What is clear is that to win in North Carolina, parties, candidates, and issue-based campaigns have to have an unaffiliated voter strategy.
On election day in 2024, according to the N.C. State Board of Elections, there were 2,959,006 voters registered unaffiliated, 2,452,747 registered Democrats, 2,347,072 registered Republicans, and 81,086 affiliated with other parties.
Turnout
Turnout was 69% in 2016, 75% in 2020, and 73% in 2024. Much was written by EdNC and other outlets about the early voting turnout.
Are we really purple?
North Carolina is often described as a purple state. In fact, Chris Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University, has a new book out called, “The Anatomy of a Purple State.”
Cooper reminds us that “North Carolina was the fourth most conservative state in the country in 1960.” Today, he finds, “On average, North Carolinians are among the most moderate in the country.”
He says, “The gap between public opinion and government ideology in North Carolina is among the largest in the country.”
This article by the NC Chamber asks, “Is North Carolina really a purple state?” and finds at the county level there is red and blue but not much purple locally.
These maps from the NC Chamber show how the partisan lean of counties has shifted since 2008 before the Republicans won the 10-year 2010 election, allowing them to draw the redistricting maps since then.
The coattail effect
Coattails — whether who voters vote for at the top of the ballot has an impact on down ballot votes — are complicated because voters in North Carolina prefer Republican presidents and Democratic governors. Only twice in recent history — in 1976 after Watergate and in 2008 with the election of President Barack Obama — have Democratic presidential candidates won North Carolina. Across roughly the same time span, only three Republican governors have been elected — Gov. Jim Holshouser, Gov. Jim Martin, and Gov. Pat McCrory.
The split ticket effect
There are lots of ways to analyze how and why voters split their tickets between candidates of different political parties, but this effect is not new to the state as the presidential and gubernatorial voting patterns show.
In this analysis after the 2024 elections by the News & Observer, you can see that in 14 counties — the pink ones — voters split their ticket by voting for Governor-elect Josh Stein and President-elect Donald Trump.
The 2024 election results
The election of Donald Trump
Republicans won big in the 2024 elections. President-elect Trump won the electoral college 312-226 with control of the U.S. Senate 53-47 and the U.S. House 220-215. In 27 states, the governor is Republican, according to this infographic created by Education Commission of the States.
The Associated Press (AP) called it “a remarkable political comeback rooted in appeal to frustrated voters.”
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 120,000 interviews with registered voters in all 50 states in English and Spanish from Oct. 28 through election day. This is their analysis of how Trump built a winning coalition.
Note that North Carolina has the second highest number of rural voters in the country.
AP VoteCast looked at North Carolina's electorate, estimating that 65% of the voters were white with median earnings of less than $70,000 annually.
Here you can see that by ideology -- including high and moderate Democrats -- and region, North Carolina voted more conservatively compared to 2020.
AP VoteCast found that 42% of North Carolina voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country in 2024, 19% said it was immigration, and education did not make the list.
Trump won 78 counties North Carolina with 50+% of the vote, including 24 counties where he won with 70+% of the vote, and two counties -- Graham and Yadkin -- where he won with 80%+ of the vote. His capacity to win counties in North Carolina has been stable: he won 76 in 2016 and 75 in 2020.
The N.C. Council of State
The N.C. Council of State split evenly across party 5-5 in the 2024 elections, and if you are trying to find it, this is where you can find some evidence that voters continue to want a competitive, two-party state with checks and balances.
- Governor: Josh Stein, D, 54.84%, the first candidate ever to win the state with more than 3 million votes
- Lt. Governor: Rachel Hunt, D, 49.46%
- Attorney General: Jeff Jackson, D, 51.35%, no Republican has been elected to serve as attorney general since 1896
- Superintendent: Mo Green, D, 51.11%
- Secretary: Elaine Marshall, D, 50.96%
- Treasurer: Brad Briner, R, 52.52%
- Auditor: Dave Boliek, R, 49.44%
- Ag: Steve Troxler, R, 52.70%
- Insurance: Mike Causey, R, 52.20%
- Labor: Luke Farley, R, 52.83%
Just after the election, the legislature passed a bill that would impact the power and influence of several incoming Democratic elected officials. Gov. Roy Cooper vetoed the bill, but an override vote is anticipated.
The N.C. delegation to the U.S. House
Republicans won these seats 10-4 in the 2024 elections.
- District 1: Democratic incumbent Don Davis, 49.46%
- District 2: Democratic incumbent Deborah Ross, 66.23%
- District 3: Republican incumbent Greg Murphy, 77.50%
- District 4: Democratic incumbent Valerie Foushee, 71.83%
- District 5: Republican incumbent Virginia Foxx, 59.53%
- District 6: Republican Addison McDowell, 69.24%
- District 7: Republican incumbent David Rouzer, 58.72%
- District 8: Republican Mark Harris, 59.68%
- District 9: Republican incumbent Richard Hudson, 56.41%
- District 10: Republican Pat Harrigan, 57.71%
- District 11: Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards, 56.82%
- District 12: Democratic incumbent Alma Adams, 73.98%
- District 13: Republican Brad Knott, 58.74%
- District 14: Republican Tim Moore, 58.15%
The N.C. General Assembly
Rep. Destin Hall, R-Caldwell, will serve as Speaker of the N.C. House in the 2025-26 session. Republicans have a strong majority with 71 Republicans-49 Democrats. Hall has said to expect a “working supermajority for all intents and purposes.” Representatives Hugh Blackwell (R-Burke), Tricia Cotham (R-Mecklenburg), and John Torbett (R-Gaston), who all played leadership roles on education committees in the 2023-24 session, won re-election.
In the Senate, President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, was re-elected and will lead a supermajority with 30 Republicans-20 Democrats. Senators Mike Lee, R-New Hanover, and Amy Galey, R-Alamance, who both played leadership roles on the education/higher education committee in the 2023-24 session, won re-election.
School boards
Of the 170 school board seats that were up for election in partisan districts this November, 138 were won by Republicans, 26 by Democrats, and six by candidates who are unaffiliated.
What do the election results mean for North Carolina?
From DC to NC
Setting aside the questions some have here and abroad about what another Trump presidency may mean for the United States in its role as a world leader or the impact on democracy or the economy here at home, here are three things to watch closely.
Read more about Susie Wiles, Trump's chief of staff, a self-described moderate who the Economist calls "sensible." Some think she has been placed to safeguard the future of Republican leadership in the country, and how she leads may be indicative of the impact of his presidency good or bad.
Whether U.S. Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74, step down so that Trump can nominate their successors is worth watching given the role the high court is playing in domestic policy.
And given Trump's stated intent to abolish the U.S. Department of Education, all eyes are on his nominee, North Carolina native and East Carolina University grad Linda McMahon.
On those checks and balances
Governor-elect Stein has the bully pulpit and executive power to serve as a check and balance for North Carolinians, and incoming Attorney General Jeff Jackson is charged to protect the people of North Carolina and their constitutional rights.
For the future, hopefully a lesson is learned by both state parties about the risk of running extreme candidates given our moderate electorate.
"When both parties move to the opposite ends of the political spectrum," the NC Chamber warned just after the 2024 primary, "it erodes the quiet, bipartisan work necessary to move our state forward. Moderating voices in each caucus will be replaced with partisan ideologues that cause division and create controversy. This not only creates a more volatile environment for our state, but also makes it more difficult for complex, challenging issues to be resolved."
On local public schools
This is Democrat Mo Green's first elected office, and how he will navigate politics, lead on policy, and organize the N.C. Department of Instruction will become more clear in the coming months.
Green's role in governance is complicated. In North Carolina, we have the governor, the governor’s Education Cabinet, the legislature (who controls the laws and the money), the State Board of Education (who sets education policy constrained by the laws and the money), the Superintendent of Public Instruction (who oversees the Department of Public Instruction, 115 local school districts, superintendents, and school boards, 200+ charter schools with more on the way), and 100 county commissions that fund local education.
With the expansion of school choice and an increasing number of taxpayer dollars going to private schools with little accountability, the state superintendent's relationships with the N.C. State Education Assistance Authority -- which administers Opportunity Scholarships and ESA+ Accounts -- and the state's Division of Non-Public Education have never been more important.
Green faces in quick succession the need to navigate a possible Leandro ruling, long session of the legislature, and transition at the federal level.
If the Leandro decision comes down this week as anticipated, how Green communicates about it could build or burn bridges with the legislature early in his tenure.
Given the importance of state appropriations in the funding of our local public schools, Green's administration will need to work with legislative leaders. But the need to build those relationships extends beyond money. As the expansion of school choice continues, Green will play an important role in advocating for accountability. If the legislature considers a shift to a weighted-student funding formula -- as is widely expected after this 126-page report was released by the John Locke Foundation -- then Green will play a crucial role in making sure the base allocations are high enough to account for needed increases in teacher pay. The state's current framework for school performance grades is being used to drive a false narrative that our public schools are failing, and Green will need to start over or pick up Superintendent Catherine Truitt's work to present a new model that can secure legislative buy-in. The future of a blueprint to revamp teacher licensure would need both Green's leadership and that of the legislature.
As we head into 2025, if there is a push to abolish the U.S. Department of Education, expect that to take a lot of Green's energy and distract him from education policy here in North Carolina given the impact federal funding plays in the state.
Superintendent Truitt presented a vision for education in North Carolina and put together a capable team to implement her vision. Green has announced that Dr. Maria Pitre-Martin will be his deputy superintendent. Given the challenges ahead, it will be interesting to see how they pace the staffing and organization of DPI and whether they prioritize a fresh start or stability.
Whether Stein, Hunt, Jackson, and Marshall will stand together with Green -- collectively presenting one voice on public education and leveraging the power of the governor's bully pulpit on this issue -- remains to be seen.
The way forward
In the 2024 election results, you can can see the strength of the Republican party -- 107 days was not enough time for Kamala Harris to counter a MAGA movement that is more than a decade in the making. You can see the strength of candidates in Josh Stein's landslide win over Mark Robinson. You can see the strength of issues and the ongoing importance of the economy to North Carolina's moderate and increasingly unaffiliated voters.
Following the election and the role negative partisanship played in securing wins, the Economist reminds us, "When people think their government is effective they tend to feel better about politicians. Likewise, if they expect to thrive in the coming years and if they feel good about their lives then they tend to look on political parties more sympathetically."
It is time to abandon antipathy and apathy, and increase investments in cross-partisan strategies that account for the political reality of North Carolina and have the capacity to influence education policy that is in the best interests of all students and local public schools.
Governor-elect Stein said after the election, “The issues facing our state -- rebuilding western North Carolina, creating good jobs, strengthening public schools, ensuring safe neighborhoods, and protecting personal freedoms -- are not partisan issues; they are North Carolina issues."
“To build a brighter future for everyone in our state," he said, "we must come together across our differences and get to work. I’m ready to go.”
Stay tuned as we all watch the next step in the evolution of party politics in North Carolina unfold.
